President Goodluck Jonathan’s sack nine ministers yesterday

President Goodluck Jonathan’s sack of nine ministers yesterday has been seen by analysts as more of political play than a change in economic direction. Although the presidency cited the need to reshape the administration as reason, a cross section of analysts who spoke with BusinessDay, say there are political and fiscal risks that will come to play from 2014, which will weigh on the market and even macro-economic stability.

“Since these positions are not of huge policy significance it appears to be more of a political play than a change in economic direction,” says Clement Nwankwo, a political analyst at the Abuja-based Policy and Legal Advocacy Centre.

Samir Gadio, emerging market strategist at Standard Bank London, says though the country’s asset classes may not be affected in the short-term, there are huge fiscal risks that will be apparent next year.

“We do not expect Nigerian asset classes (Eurobonds, local currency fixed income, equities, FX) to be affected in the short-term. Yet, this is a reminder of the political and subsequently fiscal risks that are likely to become more apparent from 2014, and will eventually weigh on market confidence and even macro-economic stability,” he says.

The analysts specifically cited the planning ministry, where a lot of initiatives have been introduced by the outgoing minister, Shamsudeen Usman. They wonder, going by the nation’s culture of non-continuation of policies of predecessors, if the plans of the minister will be carried to the letter by the incoming minister.

Shamsudeen Usman is undoubtedly one of the longest serving ministers under the current administration, having being appointed into the National Planning Ministry under late President Umaru Musa Yar’ Adua. He is regarded as a major strategist in the Jonathan administration, having played a very strategic role in the setting up of the agenda for performance appraisal as a benchmark for assessing ministers serving in the Jonathan cabinet as well as a performance contract for ministries, departments and agencies of government (MDAs).

Most political watchers believe that the cabinet reshuffle, coming at a time when all eyes are on the general election of 2015, may be informed by the need to whip supporters in line for the party’s nomination for the incoming presidential election.

However, other pundits say the exercise is hugely connected with the current crisis rocking the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP) and it is being used to punish opposition within the party.

The nine ministers sacked are ministers of foreign affairs, Olugbenga Ashiru (Ogun); education, Ruqqayatu Rufai (Jigawa); national planning, Shamsudeen Usman (Kano); lands, housing and urban development, Amal Pepple (Rivers); environment, Hadiza Mailafia (Kaduna), and science and technology, Ita Ewa (Cross River).

Others are ministers of state for defence, Olusola Obada (Osun); power, Zainab Kuchi (Niger), and agriculture, Tijani Bukar (Borno).

Briefing journalists after the Federal Executive Council meeting presided over by President Goodluck Jonathan at the Presidential Villa, Labaran Maku, minister of information and new supervisory minister in charge of defence, said the sack had no political undertone and disclosed that the president had assigned new ministers to supervise the affairs of those ministries affected by the sack.

Maku announced that the ministers of agriculture, Akinwumi Adesina and power, Chinedu Nebo were directed to take full charge of their ministries, pending the appointment of new ministers of state.

Maku, when pressed for reasons for the sack, said “it is in line with the president’s decision to reshape his government. It is to adjust his cabinet in line with his transformation agenda,” debunking claims that the minor cabinet reshuffle had no correlation with ongoing political crises within the PDP, as “he is not the type that will take a decision on the spur of the moment.

“This is definitely a decision to reshape his government. The president wants to inject fresh blood into his cabinet, for him to come into this conclusion means that he has been working on this over time.”

The sack, which takes immediate effect, did not come to many as a surprise as the issue of cabinet reshuffle has been an issue of media speculation.

Although the presidency has downplayed politics in the sack, BusinessDay learnt that their leaning towards those in the New PDP may have cost them their jobs. Some political watchers also say the exercise may be part of the peace process going on to resolve the crisis in the party.

Ashiru, the outgoing foreign affairs minister, is a loyalist of former President Olusegun Obasanjo. His removal may not be unconnected to the crisis rocking the ruling the PDP.

Despite the reconciliatory role of Obasanjo to end the feud, the presidency is yet to be convinced Obasanjo is with President Goodluck Jonathan and the sack may be a way of getting at Obasanjo ahead the 2015 general elections.

Obada was the deputy to former governor of Osun State, Olagunsoye Oyinlola who is the factional national secretary of the new PDP and her sack was expected as she remains a loyalist of Oyinlola.

Rufai could not have been a victim of the PDP crisis but the lingering ASUU strike which has entered its eight week, while Amma Pepple may have been caught in the Rivers State crisis.

Maku, who was supported at the briefing by Emeka Wogu, minister of labour, and that of transport, Idris Umar, said the minister of state for education, Nyesom Wike had been assigned to oversee the Ministry of Education while minister of state for Niger Delta Development, Dairus Ishaku will over see the Ministry of Environment.

Minister of Solid Mineral Development Musa Sada was assigned to over see the Ministry of Lands, Housing and Urban Development, just as minister of communication technology, Omobola Johnson had been assigned to over see the Ministry of Science and Technology, vacated by Ita Ewa Okon.

The minister of state works, Bashir Yuguda was assigned to over the Ministry of National Planning following Shamsudeen Usman’s sack.

For Shamsudeen Usman, who was absent at yesterday’s meeting, his removal may be connected with the opposition from Rabiu Kwankwaso, governor of his home state, Kano on Jonathan’s ambition for 2015.